// These are intended for streaming (i.e. single-pass) applications. Otherwise // the formulas look different (and are more intuitive). package lib import ( "math" ) // Univariate linear regression // There are N (xi, yi) pairs. // // minimize E = sum (yi - m xi - b)^2 // // Set the two partial derivatives to zero and solve for m and b: // // DE/Dm = sum 2 (yi - m xi - b) (-xi) = 0 // DE/Db = sum 2 (yi - m xi - b) (-1) = 0 // // sum (yi - m xi - b) (xi) = 0 // sum (yi - m xi - b) = 0 // // sum (xi yi - m xi^2 - b xi) = 0 // sum (yi - m xi - b) = 0 // // m sum(xi^2) + b sum(xi) = sum(xi yi) // m sum(xi) + b N = sum(yi) // // [ sum(xi^2) sum(xi) ] [ m ] = [ sum(xi yi) ] // [ sum(xi) N ] [ b ] = [ sum(yi) ] // // [ m ] = [ sum(xi^2) sum(xi) ]^-1 [ sum(xi yi) ] // [ b ] [ sum(xi) N ] [ sum(yi) ] // // = [ N -sum(xi) ] [ sum(xi yi) ] * 1/D // [ -sum(xi) sum(xi^2)] [ sum(yi) ] // // where // // D = N sum(xi^2) - sum(xi)^2. // // So // // N sum(xi yi) - sum(xi) sum(yi) // m = -------------------------------- // D // // -sum(xi)sum(xi yi) + sum(xi^2) sum(yi) // b = ---------------------------------------- // D // func GetLinearRegressionOLS( nint int64, sumx float64, sumx2 float64, sumxy float64, sumy float64, ) (m, b float64) { n := float64(nint) D := n*sumx2 - sumx*sumx m = (n*sumxy - sumx*sumy) / D b = (-sumx*sumxy + sumx2*sumy) / D return m, b } // We would need a second pass through the data to compute the error-bars given // the data and the m and the b. // // # Young 1962, pp. 122-124. Compute sample variance of linear // # approximations, then variances of m and b. // var_z = 0.0 // for i in range(0, N): // var_z += (m * xs[i] + b - ys[i])**2 // var_z /= N // // var_m = (N * var_z) / D // var_b = (var_z * sumx2) / D // // output = [m, b, math.sqrt(var_m), math.sqrt(var_b)] // GetVar is the finalizing function for computing variance from streamed // accumulator values. func GetVar( nint int64, sumx float64, sumx2 float64, ) float64 { n := float64(nint) mean := sumx / n numerator := sumx2 - mean*(2.0*sumx-n*mean) if numerator < 0.0 { // round-off error numerator = 0.0 } denominator := n - 1.0 return numerator / denominator } // Unbiased estimator: // (1/n) sum{(xi-mean)**3} // ----------------------------- // [(1/(n-1)) sum{(xi-mean)**2}]**1.5 // mean = sumx / n; n mean = sumx // sum{(xi-mean)^3} // = sum{xi^3 - 3 mean xi^2 + 3 mean^2 xi - mean^3} // = sum{xi^3} - 3 mean sum{xi^2} + 3 mean^2 sum{xi} - n mean^3 // = sumx3 - 3 mean sumx2 + 3 mean^2 sumx - n mean^3 // = sumx3 - 3 mean sumx2 + 3n mean^3 - n mean^3 // = sumx3 - 3 mean sumx2 + 2n mean^3 // = sumx3 - mean*(3 sumx2 + 2n mean^2) // sum{(xi-mean)^2} // = sum{xi^2 - 2 mean xi + mean^2} // = sum{xi^2} - 2 mean sum{xi} + n mean^2 // = sumx2 - 2 mean sumx + n mean^2 // = sumx2 - 2 n mean^2 + n mean^2 // = sumx2 - n mean^2 // Unbiased: // (1/n) sum{(x-mean)**4} // ----------------------- - 3 // [(1/n) sum{(x-mean)**2}]**2 // sum{(xi-mean)^4} // = sum{xi^4 - 4 mean xi^3 + 6 mean^2 xi^2 - 4 mean^3 xi + mean^4} // = sum{xi^4} - 4 mean sum{xi^3} + 6 mean^2 sum{xi^2} - 4 mean^3 sum{xi} + n mean^4 // = sum{xi^4} - 4 mean sum{xi^3} + 6 mean^2 sum{xi^2} - 4 n mean^4 + n mean^4 // = sum{xi^4} - 4 mean sum{xi^3} + 6 mean^2 sum{xi^2} - 3 n mean^4 // = sum{xi^4} - mean*(4 sum{xi^3} - 6 mean sum{xi^2} + 3 n mean^3) // = sumx4 - mean*(4 sumx3 - 6 mean sumx2 + 3 n mean^3) // = sumx4 - mean*(4 sumx3 - mean*(6 sumx2 - 3 n mean^2)) // Non-streaming implementation: // // def find_sample_covariance(xs, ys): // n = len(xs) // mean_x = find_mean(xs) // mean_y = find_mean(ys) // // sum = 0.0 // for k in range(0, n): // sum += (xs[k] - mean_x) * (ys[k] - mean_y) // // return sum / (n-1.0) func GetCov( nint int64, sumx float64, sumy float64, sumxy float64, ) float64 { n := float64(nint) meanx := sumx / n meany := sumy / n numerator := sumxy - meanx*sumy - meany*sumx + n*meanx*meany denominator := n - 1 return numerator / denominator } func GetCovMatrix( nint int64, sumx float64, sumx2 float64, sumy float64, sumy2 float64, sumxy float64, ) (Q [2][2]float64) { n := float64(nint) denominator := n - 1 Q[0][0] = (sumx2 - sumx*sumx/n) / denominator Q[0][1] = (sumxy - sumx*sumy/n) / denominator Q[1][0] = Q[0][1] Q[1][1] = (sumy2 - sumy*sumy/n) / denominator return Q } // Principal component analysis can be used for linear regression: // // * Compute the covariance matrix for the x's and y's. // // * Find its eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the cov. (This is real-symmetric // so Jacobi iteration is simple and fine.) // // * The principal eigenvector points in the direction of the fit. // // * The covariance matrix is computed on zero-mean data so the intercept // is zero. The fit equation is of the form (y - nu) = m*(x - mu) where mu // and nu are x and y means, respectively. // // * If the fit is perfect then the 2nd eigenvalue will be zero; if the fit is // good then the 2nd eigenvalue will be smaller; if the fit is bad then // they'll be about the same. I use 1 - |lambda2|/|lambda1| as an indication // of quality of the fit. // // Standard ("ordinary least-squares") linear regression is appropriate when // the errors are thought to be all in the y's. PCA ("total least-squares") is // appropriate when the x's and the y's are thought to both have errors. func GetLinearRegressionPCA( eigenvalue1 float64, eigenvalue2 float64, eigenvector1 [2]float64, eigenvector2 [2]float64, xMean float64, yMean float64, ) (m, b, quality float64) { abs1 := math.Abs(eigenvalue1) abs2 := math.Abs(eigenvalue2) quality = 1.0 if abs1 == 0.0 { quality = 0.0 } else if abs2 > 0.0 { quality = 1.0 - abs2/abs1 } a0 := eigenvector1[0] a1 := eigenvector1[1] m = a1 / a0 b = yMean - m*xMean return m, b, quality }